It was good to see many of you in person at the Oregon Seed League meetings in
Salem. While we were talking about grass
seed, and Hazelnuts and Blueberries, the USDA came out with their
monthly supply and demand report. And the resulting market action was
as we have seen
before. Prices going lower. That is, the agency reports some inventory
and export numbers that almost immediately the trade starts to scoff
at. For example the report says that there will be 50 million bushels
less export of wheat for the year and then of
course that number shows up in the ending year carryout. Mainly this
cut (45 million bushels worth) in exports and ending year increase in
stocks came from the Hard Red numbers……….where it has been dry as bone
for next year’s crop. White wheat export expectations
were raised 10 million bushels!
The USDA raised Australian wheat production a million tons to 22 million tons while
Australia itself says 20.5 million tons.
Argentina’s wheat production was kept at the
prediction of 11.5 million tons when many think it might go down to 9.5
million tons. And as we heard at the Seed League meetings
it sounds like an export ban for wheat from Argentina might be coming.
So
what to make of the report. We have been there and suffered on pricing
before following a release of a USDA report. As we know the
big buyers usually come to town to buy on these price dips and it is
hard to not recognize that the PNW may not have a lot of wheat
inventories to carry us through to new crop. I hope 12/12/12 is a lucky
day for you all . . . . . . . . .
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